Vēlēšanas ASV.

Un tā šis brīdis ir klāt – jau šodien ASV risinās prezidenta vēlēšanas. Šo notikumu vēro visa pasaule, jo kaut kas tāds visu ASV vesturē vēl nav bijis kopš tās pilsonu kara – vēlēšanu fonā ir gan kovidšovs, gan jau mēnešiem ilgstošās ‘mierīgās protesta akcijas’, kuru laikā posts un destrukcija skārusi teju visas lielākās un mazākās pilsētas. Un protams, šo notikumu bažīgi vēro arī Austrumeiropas vietējie varneši, tai skaitā LV štata pārvaldnieki. Kā tad izskatās ģeopolitiskais izklājums priekš viņiem katra kandidāta uzvaras gadījumā?

Bez izņēmuma visas socioloģiskās aptaujas sprediķo uzvaru Baidenam – tieši tāpat, kā 2016. gadā tas bija ar Klintoni. Un lielākā daļa amerikāņu koloniālās adminstrācijas darbinieku šeit ar trīcošām rokām cer, ka šoreiz šīs prognozes piepildīsies. Baidenam nav nekādu simpātiju pret Krieviju un tās prezidentu, viņš negrasās ar to sadarboties un uzturēt normālas attiecības un ir nosaucis KF par galveno ASV ienaidnieku, pat apejot Ķīnu.

Viņam šeit ir daudz vairāk interešu, kā Trampam, kā nekā viņš ir veiksmīgi šeptējies Ukrainā un viņa dēlēna Hantera korupcija šajā valstī ir leģendāra. Un protams, viņš ir apsolījis aizstāvēt Baltiju no negantās Krievijas. Tāpēc visu līmeņu liberāļem vismaz Baltijā Baidena uzvara dotu iespēju atviegloti nopūsties.

Taču demokrātu uzvaras gadījumā saviem ‘sabiedrotajiem’ tie nesīs arī stingras vadlīnijas baltā rasisma apkarošanā, zaļā fašisma ieviešanā un citās tikpat demokrātiskās izdarībās. Tad Rūjienas saldējuma sāga kļūs par realitāti ikdienā, nerunājot par citiem tikpat destruktīviem procesiem kā ekonomikā, tā sabiedrībā.

Dīvaina situācija ir ar Poliju, kurā ne tikai ir sācies maidauns pašu sētā, ko tikko demokrāti-liberāļi centās realizēt Baltkrievijā, bet Baidens par šo valsti ir izteicies kā par totalitāru režīmu – poļiem šobrīd daudz labāks ir Tramps, jo Baidena uzvaras gadījumā tur acīmredzami maidauns izvērtīsies tāds, ka maz neliksies.

2016. gadā ASV sociologi bezcerīgi kļūdījās visās savās prognozēs un neviens nevar garantēt, ka viņi to pašu neizdara atkal. To viņi mēģina attaisnot ar ‘kautrīgajiem trampistiem’ – tiem, kuri aptaujās slēpa savus nolūkus par viņu balsot.

Trampa uzvaras gadījumā Eiropai un īpaši Austrumu daļai tie atkal būs 4 nesaprotami gadi, ja skatās no liberāļu skatu punkta, bet tas būs intensīvas ASV kā globālas lielvaras demontāžas periods no globālās politikas viedokļa un attiecīgi arī līdzšinējās vasaļvalstu pārvaldes sistēmas un 5tās kolonnas likvidācija, kas tik ļoti biedē vietējos administratorus.

Trampa prāt, galvenais ienaidnieks ir Ķīna un šajā jautājumā viņš būtu ar mieru normalizēt attiecības ar Krieviju, bet tas vietējiem nacionāļiem un citiem liberāļiem ir ļaunākais murgs, ja šīs abas valstis sāktu sadarboties. Tādā gadījumā nevienam vairs neinteresēs ne Ukrainas problēmas, ne Baltijas valstu kangaru vaidēšana par Krievijas ‘agresiju’ – kaut arī Trampa politika nekādā ziņā nebūs ‘prokrieviska’ un retorika tur īpaši nemainīsies, taču Trampa administrācija arī nekrāmēsies ar profesionālajiem Baltijas valstu upuriem.

To vienīgā eksistences jēga ģeopolitikā ir sagaidīt kārtējās sankcijas pret Krieviju, cīnīties pret Ziemeļu straumi II un stāstīt, ka Krievija tūlīt uzbruks un tāpēc vajag steidzami palielināt aizsardzības izdevumus.

Bet ir arī tāds variants, ka neuzvar neviens. Jebšu abi kandidāti pasludina par savu uzvaru un neatzīst otru – tas pat ir visai ticams scenārijs. Un tas nozīmē dziļu politisku krīzi, dažādus destruktīvus procesus, divvaldību un reizē valsti bez reāla prezidenta. Abas puses apvaino viena otru rezultātu viltošanā, mēnešiem ilgst balsu pārskaitīšana, valsts pārvalde uzkaras, vēlēšanu iznākumu jārisina tiesvedības ceļā un uz ielām notiek bezgalīgas sadursmes starp abu naidīgi noskaņoto pušu pārstāvjiem.

Izskatās, ka tieši šādam scenārijam ASV arī gatavojas, jo lielajās pilsētās klapē ciet skatlogus, bagātie amerikāņi iepērk īpašumus ārzemēs, iedzīvotāji masveidā izpērk ieročus un munīciju. Galvenais jautājums, kas tiek apspriests – kurā pusē nostāsies spēka struktūras, armija, policija, nacionālā gvarde, dažādi specdienesti utt. Pastāv iespēja, ka sāks atdalīties atsevišķi štati, kuros uzvarēs viena vai otra puse un beigās var sākties totāls pilsoņu karš.

Šajā gadījumā Austrumeiropa pilnībā zaudē savu pavēlnieku, aizstāvi un saimnieku, kuru šeit dievina un pielūdz jau gadu desmitiem. Bet šajā scenārijā ASV kā ‘sabiedroto’ var aizmirst un viņiem tur par NATO un Baltijas ‘aizsardzību’ nebūs nekādas daļas. Toties šāds scenārijs dod iespēju beidzot nomainīt ASV kalpojošo eliti un atsākt patiesi nacionālas un suverēnas valsts veidošanu, ja saimnieka vairs nav, tad arī tā dotās komandas iznīcināt tautu nebūs, kam pildīt.

Tāpēc pa lielam saprātīgi noskaņotiem ļaudīm der viss, izņemot ar demenci sirgstošā Baidena uzvaru, savukārt liberāļu nostāju jau ir paudis Eiro-Ījabs, skaidri deklarējot, ka viņiem tikai Baidens nesīs laimi un gaviles.

Tad nu ievelkam elpu un atbalstām Trampu!

91 thoughts on “Vēlēšanas ASV.

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